If Google is forced to give up Chrome, what happens next?

Opinion When Donald Trump entered the White House, I expect Google thought its worries were over. A million-dollar "donation" for the inaugural ball, some face time between Sundar Pichai and Trump, and President Joe Biden's pesky Department of Justice (DoJ) demanding Google divest itself of its Chrome web browser would all be forgotten.

Right? Wrong. Instead, Trump's DoJ still wants Google to sell off Chrome.

Darn it! As 19th century American politician Simon Cameron said, "An honest politician is one who, when he is bought, will stay bought." You can't count on anyone these days.

So what happens next? Well, besides the obvious of a bigger contribution to say the 2028 Trump presidential campaign.

Here's what's in the cards. First, Google may end up selling Chrome. Chrome is worth serious money. It's easily the most popular web browser. The best market numbers for browsers, I've found, are those provided by the US federal government's Digital Analytics Program (DAP). It gives us a running count of the last 90 days of US government website visits. While it doesn't tell us much about global web browser use, it's the best information we have about American web browser use.

According to DAP, Chrome is number one, as of May 7th, 2025, with 51.7 percent. Safari, thanks to the iPhone, is second with 30.3 percent. My guestimate for Chrome on the desktop would be close to 70 percent, while Statcounter shows it at 66.19 percent.

With that kind of market share, there are already numerous would-be buyers. There are, in no particular order:

OpenAI: The ChatGPT maker has expressed strong interest in acquiring Chrome to integrate its AI capabilities directly into the browser. The goal here would be to create an "AI-first" browsing experience.

This would enable OpenAI to expand its user base and embed AI-powered search and agents more deeply than current Chrome extensions. OpenAI's head of product testified about this interest during the antitrust trial, highlighting the strategic value of Chrome's vast user base and data for advancing AI technologies.

Yahoo - yes, Yahoo, remember them? - after years of being barely an afterthought on the web, wants back in the game. Yahoo views Chrome as a critical asset for its comeback strategy, aiming to re-enter and compete in the search market. Owning Chrome would provide Yahoo with immediate scale and distribution, supporting its ambitions in search, social engagement, and advertising.

Now, you might well ask, "How can Yahoo afford this?" I've seen estimates of Chrome being worth $50 billion, while frankly, I think it could go for a lot more. According to Yahoo's search GM Brian Provost, the company might be able to pull it off with backing from its parent company, Apollo Global Management.

OpenAI's not the only AI power that lusts for Chrome. Perplexity, the AI-driven search startup, has also shown interest in buying Chrome, thereby leveraging the browser's massive reach to boost its own services. While Perplexity is developing its own browser, Comet, let's face it, acquiring Chrome would be a shortcut to user acquisition and enhance data collection for tailored advertising.

Would you believe DuckDuckGo, the anti-Google search engine, wants Chrome? Believe it. Although CEO Gabriel Weinberg expressed interest in Chrome as the foundation for a privacy-focused alternative, Weinberg acknowledged DuckDuckGo probably can't afford Chrome's high price tag. Still, hope springs eternal.

While not explicitly confirmed, word is that Microsoft, too, is interested. After all, it already has investments in browsers, the Chrome-based Edge, search, and Bing. However, acquiring Chrome would raise antitrust concerns about consolidating browser market power.

What about Mozilla? It has its own worries. The last thing Mozilla wants is for Google to be forced to give up Chrome. What's that you say? Isn't Firefox Chrome's arch-enemy? Please. Stop with the fanboi nonsense. Mozilla can't survive with the cash it gets from Google search.

Don't believe me? Would you believe Mark Surman, President of Mozilla? In a blog post, giving Mozilla's response to DoJ's demands on Google, Surman said, "The big unintended consequence here is the handing of power from one dominant player to another. So, from Google Search to Microsoft, or Bing for example - while shutting out the smaller, independent challengers that actually drive browser innovation and offer web users privacy and choice."

Without this money, Mozilla feels it couldn't develop and maintain Gecko, Firefox's web browser engine. That, in turn, means, Surman claimed, "it's game over for an open, independent web. Look, Microsoft - a $3 trillion company - already gave up its browser engine in 2019, and Opera gave up theirs in 2013. If Mozilla is forced out, Google's Chromium becomes the only cross-platform browser engine left."

There is another card in play, which I haven't seen mentioned. You may not have noticed, but I sure did, that back in January, Google and the Linux Foundation announced the founding of Supporters of Chromium-Based Browsers. This is a neutral space where developers and the broader open source community can collaborate to support Chromium projects. Guess what? Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, and Opera, already support this initiative.

What this means, I think, is that even if Google is forced to sell Chrome, it could replace it with a true open source web browser with broad industry support. This way, Google would technically comply while still having a browser to call its own.

Like I said in the beginning, we're living in interesting times. ®