Linus Torvalds: 90% of AI marketing is hype

Linus Torvalds, creator of the Linux kernel, thinks the majority of marketing circulated by the industry on Generative AI is simply fluff with no real substance - and it may take many years before the tech is proven.

The reformed potty mouth was speaking at the Open Source Summit in Vienna last month to "video-focused storytelling platform" TFiR when he was asked for thoughts on modern technologies, specifically GenAI.

"I think AI is really interesting and I think it is going to change the world and at the same time I hate the hype cycle so much that I really don't want to go there, so my approach to AI right now is I will basically ignore it," said Torvalds.

"I think the whole tech industry around AI is in a very bad position and it's 90 percent marketing and ten percent reality and in five years things will change and at that point we'll see what of the AI is getting used for real workloads," he added.

OpenAI's ChatGPT "makes great demonstrations and it's obviously being used in many areas, for graphic design and things like that, but I really hate the hype cycle."

The IT industry is known for marketing bluster, homing in on a nascent technology to over-promise and under-deliver. This, said the Linux kernel developer, is a problem: "before AI a couple of years ago the only thing people talked about was crypto and I just don't like the hype cycle."

Some $95 billion has so far been invested in AI start-ups since the start of 2023 and the big four hyperscalers have sunk $200 billion in capital expenditure, according to Informa fellow Steve Brazier, who was speaking at the Canalys Channels Forum this month.

"With around $200 billion in capex, only about $20 billion of revenue is actually coming from consumers and businesses in terms of AI services, things like Copilot licenses and ChatGPT licenses, so a very poor return in true results in terms of end users. And the whole bet [whether] the AI explosion continues or not will depend on whether they can get that $20 billion up as quickly as they hope."

The spotlight from investors will again shine on Google later today and on Microsoft tomorrow when those companies report their latest financial results. Microsoft plowed billions into OpenAI, Mistral and Inflection, while Google has gambled on Anthropic.

Both companies are still trying to convince customers of the productivity benefits of GenAI, though the return on investment seems uncertain, with unforeseen challenges related to corporate governance sometimes the sticking point.

Gary Marcus, professor emeritus at New York University and an AI expert, told The Reg last week that GenAI has its uses but "isn't all that reliable".

"More broadly, everyone is pushing GenAI to try to make back their immense investments, but it's not going that well. In 2023 there was nothing but hype; in 2024 I see a lot of disillusionment," Marcus said.

So it seems Torvalds isn't alone. He's on the money and - unlike some chatbots that go off the rails - he didn't even need to utter a single profanity to make the point.